French Prime Minister François Bayrou's decision to tie his government's survival to a vote of confidence in the Assemblée Nationale is perplexing. While the opposition was already preparing menacing motions of no confidence, the move is even more uncertain because the majority requirements are stricter when the government itself calls for a vote: a relative majority in favor [more votes for than against] in one case, and an absolute majority [more votes than half the total number of seats] against in the other. And in politics, the worst is never certain.
Should this announcement be seen as a form of evasion, typical of centrists, who have always felt uneasy in a Fifth Republic designed against them? Perhaps. There is also, certainly, a more personal dimension for Bayrou – a man who, for decades, was more accustomed to commenting on political life than acting in it, and who has been worn down by controversies (such as the Catholic school abuse scandal) and weakened by failures (such as negotiations with unions and business leaders on the pension system).
However, this near-abdication by a politician who has long preached the need to overcome partisan divides and build concord is still perplexing. The comparison with Michel Rocard [1930-2016] is harsh: The Socialist prime minister [1988-1991] saw the absence of a majority as an opportunity to implement some principles of France's "second left" – compromise, respect for the opposition, involvement of unions and business leaders, and negotiated policymaking. Bayrou, by contrast, failed to truly bring together the right, negotiate in a lasting way with the left, or involve the unions.
Informal procedural rules
Some may counter that since 1988, French politics has become both more polarized and fragmented, and that it suffers from the weakening of parties whose leaders struggle to secure compromises among their own party base or even their own lawmakers. With the presidential election just two years away, opposition leaders are eager to shore up their electoral base by defending their doctrinal and strategic integrity.
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