The future of French Prime Minister François Bayrou and his government now rests in the hands of the Assemblée Nationale. Under pressure from opposition parties ahead of the 2026 budget debate, Bayrou decided to seek a confidence vote on Monday, September 8, the outcome of which will determine whether his minority government survives.
The procedure, set out in Article 49.1 of the French Constitution, puts a straightforward question to all members of the Assemblée: Do they have confidence in Bayrou's government to lead the nation's policy? While lawmakers may abstain or be absent from the chamber, only "for" and "against" votes will be counted, leading to two possible outcomes:
- If the "againsts" reach a majority of votes cast (the total number of "for" and "against" votes), Bayrou will have to tender his government's resignation to President Emmanuel Macron;
- If the "fors" have the majority, he will remain in office.
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What each group has said
The four left-wing groups and the far-right Rassemblement National, together counting 315 seats (55%) of the 574 currently filled, announced they would vote against the government:
- La France Insoumise (radical left, 71 seats) will vote against, according to its coordinator, Manuel Bompard.
- The Communists (17 seats) will vote against, according to their spokesperson, Léon Deffontaines.
- The Socialists (66 seats) will vote against, according to their leader, Olivier Faure.
- The Greens (38 seats) will vote against, according to their leader, Marine Tondelier.
- The far-right Rassemblement National (RN, 123 seats) will vote against, according to their leader Marine Le Pen.
- RN ally Eric Ciotti, the leader of the Union des Droites pour la République (UDR, 15 seats), said it would be "unthinkable" to grant confidence to the Bayrou government. But the group has not explicitly stated whether it would vote against or abstain.
The four groups in Bayrou's governing coalition, with a total of 207 seats, all plan to back the government:
- Ensemble Pour la République (91 seats), whose core is made up of Macron's party Renaissance, will back Bayrou. Renaissance leader Gabriel Attal said Wednesday he "would do everything so that François Bayrou remains prime minister."
- The centrist MoDem (36 seats) party, led by Bayrou, will also support him.
- The center-right Horizons (34 seats) party will back the government, party leader Edouard Philippe said Wednesday.
- The conservative Les Républicains (46 seats) will also back the government, according to Bruno Retailleau, the party's president who is also the interior minister.
A "clear majority" of the 23 MPs in LIOT, a group of miscellaneous independents and small parties, will vote against the government, the group said in a statement on Wednesday.
Finally, the 11 non-affiliated lawmakers are not members of any group. They are expected to split their votes among for, against and abstention.
Unless the negotiations Bayrou has called for yield a last-minute change ahead of September 8, the prime minister appears headed for a loss, meaning he would have to resign after just over eight months in power.